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Climate reconstruction and the need for statistics

Quantitative climate information is an essential tool when attempting to answer questions regarding early Holocene environment and possible human impact.

Whereas continuous climatic measurements are only available for the last 100 years, for the past – and especially for the prehistoric periods – we are dependent on other sources, referred to as proxy data. In project B3 we assume that the presence of plants (determined by pollen) in a certain area is a marker for prevailing climate conditions. These data are best harnessed using probabilistic transfer functions. The nature of these transfer functions is – and must be - probabilistic due to the fact that the climate biosphere is a complex high dimensional stochastical system.

The result of the reconstruction can be described by a conditional probability density function (PDF) for the climate state of the past grafik_Xo, given the fossil pollen spectra grafik_Yo (the pollen counts), the recent climate data X and the recent proxy data Y:

grafik_gesamt

For the analysis of the pollen samples from the Sea of Galilee and Birkat Ram in Israel, we use two different methods, both developed at the Meteorological Institute at the University of Bonn.

The climate reconstruction for each pollen sample of the drilling core of the Sea of Galilee has recently been completed.

 

B3_Climate_Reconstr_Fig_1_lhk_400px
Climate reconstruction of winter temperature for each pollen sample layer.
Photo: Benno Thoma

Project

Climate reconstruction and the need for statistics

Climate reconstruction and the need for statistics

Quantitative climate information is an essential tool when attempting to answer questions regarding early Holocene environment and...

First DSDDP workshop in Ein Gedi and field trip ar...

First DSDDP workshop in Ein Gedi and field trip around Israel in November 2014

In November 2014, the members of the B3 project went to Israel for the Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) workshop and several...

Discovery of a new centric diatom species from Lak...

Discovery of a new centric diatom species from Lake Kinneret/Israel

During a preliminary analysis of the diatom succession in the sediment sequence of Lake Kinneret (recovered in 2010), large popula...

Annual Meeting of the Dutch-Flemish Society of Dia...

Annual Meeting of the Dutch-Flemish Society of Diatomists (NVKD) in Mont Rigi, Belgium

After the well-working collaboration with Prof. Dr. Bart Van de Vijver (Botanical Garden Meise in Belgium), resulting in the descr...

Sampling Dead Sea long cores in Bremen

Sampling Dead Sea long cores in Bremen

Past and present environmental changes of the marine realm are studied at the MARUM (Center for Marine Environmental Sciences), Un...

10th Central European Diatom Meeting in Budapest

10th Central European Diatom Meeting in Budapest

Around 70 scientists with interest in diatom research from all over Europe, the United States and Mexico came together to present...

Science Night (Wissenschaftsnacht) 2016 in Bonn

Science Night (Wissenschaftsnacht) 2016 in Bonn

The 10th science night in Bonn attracted people of all ages with this year’s motto “WaterWorlds”. About 18,000 visitors came to se...

24th International Diatom Symposium (IDS) in Québe...

24th International Diatom Symposium (IDS) in Québec City (Canada)

Around 190 scientists with interest in diatom research from all over the world came together to present and discuss results relate...

CliMathNet and PEN

CliMathNet and PEN

The network CliMathNet is a collaboration of climate scientists, mathematicians and statisticians aiming to answer related questio...

Pollen grains reveal the paleovegetation of the so...

Pollen grains reveal the paleovegetation of the southern Levant

The southern Levant experienced strong environmental changes since the last glacial period. Enormous lake-level high stands charac...

 

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